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DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251106T134000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251106T150000
DTSTAMP:20260416T135025
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SUMMARY:Applied Microeconomics and Trade Seminar Series presents: Matt Pecenco
DESCRIPTION:Applied Microeconomics and Trade Seminar\nDate: Thursday\, November 6\, 2025\nTime: 1:40-3:00 p.m.\nLocation: E2-499\n\n \n\nSpeaker: Matt Pecenco\nTitle: Orlando Bravo Assistant Professor of Economics \nAffiliation: Brown University \nHost: Ariel Zucker \n \nSeminar title: Conviction\, Incarceration\, and Policy Effects in the Criminal Justice System\n \nABSTRACT:   The criminal justice system affects millions of Americans through criminal convictions and incarceration. In this paper\, we introduce a new method for credibly estimating the effects of both conviction and incarceration using randomly assigned judges as instruments for treatment. Misdemeanor convictions\, especially for defendants with a shorter criminal record\, cause an increase in the number of new offenses committed over the following five years. Incarceration on more serious felony charges\, in contrast\, reduces recidivism during the period of incapacitation\, but has no effect after release. Our method allows the researcher to isolate specific treatment effects of interest as well as estimate the effect of broader policies; we find that courts could reduce crime by dismissing marginal charges against defendants accused of misdemeanors\, with larger reductions among first-time defendants and those facing more serious charges.
URL:https://events.ucsc.edu/event/applied-microeconomics-and-trade-seminar-series-presents-matt-pecenco/
LOCATION:Engineering 2\, Engineering 2 1156 High Street\, Santa Cruz\, CA\, 95064
CATEGORIES:Seminars
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251113T134000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251113T150000
DTSTAMP:20260416T135025
CREATED:20251105T211520Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20251120T172017Z
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SUMMARY:Applied Microeconomics and Trade Seminar Series presents: Giovanni Peri
DESCRIPTION:Applied Microeconomics and Trade Seminar\nDate: Thursday\, November 13\, 2025\nTime: 1:40-3:00 p.m.\nLocation: E2-499\n\n \n\nSpeaker: Giovanni Peri\nTitle: C. Bryan Cameron Distinguished Professor in International Economics \nAffiliation: UC Davis\nHost: Gueyon Kim\n \nSeminar title: How the1942 Japanese Exclusion Impacted U.S. Agriculture\n \nABSTRACT:  In the early 1940s\, Japanese American farmers and farm workers represented an important part of agriculture-specific human capital in the United States. In 1942 all those living in the “exclusion zone” along the WestCoastwereforcefully relocated to internment camps and most of them never returned to farming. Using county-level panel data from historical agricultural censuses and a triple-difference (DDD) estimation approach we find that\, by 1960\, counties in the exclusion zone experienced 12% lower cumulative growth in farm value for each percentage point loss of their 1940 share of Japanese farm workers\, relative to counties outside the exclusion zone. Farm revenues\, farm productivity\, adoption of high-value crops\, mechanization\, and farm wages were also correspondingly lower. Taken together\, these findings are consistent with Japanese farmers representing hard-to-replace human capital\, rather than replaceable labor\, in US agriculture.
URL:https://events.ucsc.edu/event/applied-microeconomics-and-trade-seminar-series-presents-giovanni-peri/
LOCATION:Engineering 2\, Engineering 2 1156 High Street\, Santa Cruz\, CA\, 95064
CATEGORIES:Seminars
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251118T134000
DTEND;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251118T150000
DTSTAMP:20260416T135025
CREATED:20251107T004436Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20251120T171912Z
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SUMMARY:Macroeconomics & International Finance Seminar Series Presents: Yuriy Gorodnichenko
DESCRIPTION:Macroeconomics and International Finance Seminar\nDate: Tuesday\, November 18\, 2025\nTime: 1:40-3:00 p.m.\nLocation: E2-499\n\n \n\nSpeaker: Yuriy Gorodnichenko\nTitle: Quantedge Presidential Professor of Economics\nAffiliation: UC Berkeley\nHost: Pascal Michaillat\n \nSeminar title:  How costly are business cycle volatility and inflation? A Vox Populi approach\n \nABSTRACT:  Using surveys of households across thirteen countries\, we study how much individuals would be willing to pay to eliminate business cycles. These direct estimates are much higher than traditional measures following Lucas (2003): on average\, households would be prepared to sacrifice around 5-6% of their lifetime consumption eliminate business cycle fluctuations. A similar result holds for inflation: to bring inflation to their desired rate\, individuals would be willing to sacrifice around 5% of their consumption. Willingness to pay to eliminate business cycles and inflation is generally higher for those whose consumption is more pro-cyclical\, those who are more uncertain about the economic outlook\, and those who live in countries with greater historical volatility. 
URL:https://events.ucsc.edu/event/macroeconomics-international-finance-seminar-series-presents-yuriy-gorodnichenko/
LOCATION:Engineering 2\, Engineering 2 1156 High Street\, Santa Cruz\, CA\, 95064
CATEGORIES:Seminars
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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTART;TZID=America/Los_Angeles:20251125T134000
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SUMMARY:Macroeconomics & International Finance Seminar Series Presents: Helen Popper
DESCRIPTION:Macroeconomics and International Finance Seminar\nDate: Tuesday\, November 25\, 2025\nTime: 1:40-3:00 p.m.\nLocation: E2-499\n\n \n\nSpeaker: Helen Popper\nTitle: Professor of Economics\nAffiliation: Santa Clara University \nHost: Galina Hale\n \nSeminar title:  Artificial Intelligence and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Growth\, Pricing\, and Distribution\n \nABSTRACT:  This paper builds a simple general equilibrium model in which an AI producer is a monopolist who both learns by doing and uses AI recursively as an input. These mechanisms link today’s scale to tomorrow’s costs\, so pricing is dynamic: the firm sets a price below the static monopoly benchmark to expand capacity and speed learning. Final goods are produced by monopolistic competitors with constant returns to scale each period. We first use Cobb–Douglas technologies to solve for a generalized balanced growth path that pins down the condition for stable\, nonexplosive growth. On this path\, AI output grows faster than final output\, the relative price of AI falls persistently\, real wages rise with overall output\, and the specialized–to–nonspecialized wage ratio is flat. We then analyze CES versions of both sectors and derive a closed form effective demand elasticity for AI that combines input substitution in production with final-goods market substitution across varieties. Finally\, simulations link adoption and distribution to elasticities\, and they allow us to explore the dynamics. When final-goods inputs are complements\, adoption is learning-first and capital-light before scaling; when they are substitutes\, adoption is scale-first and the two-phase pattern attenuates. On the distribution side\, the specialized–to–nonspecialized wage premium is lowest with complements and rises with substitutes. Greater substitutability in AI production amplifies these patterns without changing their sign.
URL:https://events.ucsc.edu/event/macroeconomics-international-finance-seminar-series-presents-helen-popper/
LOCATION:Engineering 2\, Engineering 2 1156 High Street\, Santa Cruz\, CA\, 95064
CATEGORIES:Seminars
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